viernes, 03 de agosto de 2012
The price of carbon permits in the world’s biggest carbon market will fall to as low as 4 euros unless the EU makes good on a promise to temporarily cut supply in the $148-billion scheme. Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said in a statement that they expected the EU to agree to cut supply of permits by 800 million over the next three years, equivalent to a 13 percent cut in total supply, but only 200 million would be reinjected into the market in the following three years.
That would boost prices from current levels of about 6.70 euros to 12 euros by 2014 and 15 euros by 2020, despite the scheme remaining oversupplied by 1.2 billion allowances by 2020, the analysts said.
However, they warned that without market intervention, prices could drop 40 percent to 4 euros next year, a fraction of the level that EU lawmakers say is necessary to drive long-lasting emission cuts across the EU.
“In the event of insufficient political support for a back-loading, carbon prices would probably collapse from current price levels, towards the 4 euro level in 2013 and average 7 euros in phase three,” the release said.
Warning low prices in the EU market could jeopardize the EU’s goal to cut emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050, the European Commission, the regulator of the scheme, has launched a proposal to backload sales of allowances to boost prices to a level that would encourage the private sector to invest in clean technology.
The proposal contains no numbers, but officials from member states will discuss scenarios that involve cutting either 400 million, 900 million or 1.2 billion allowances from supply in 2013-2016.
Debate is expected to start in September after the summer recess and the Commission said it aims to make a detailed proposal before the end of the year.
At the same time the EC will discuss deeper structural reforms to the scheme that could lead to the permanent cancellation of the permits.
Thomson Reuters analysts said a decision to cut supply would be taken in early 2013 and a ruling to cancel the majority of supply would be taken in 2014/2015.
“We expect the debate on back-loading volume to start from the middle figure mentioned by the Commission (900 million) and be negotiated slightly downwards,” said Anders Nordeng, a senior analyst with the company.
“With regard to the cancellation, there is still no official proposal on the table, but the Commission has confirmed that this is indeed among the options for structural change that will be presented for debate after the summer recess,” the report said.
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